Why ‘The Flash’ Could Do Better Than Expected

Note: This article is based on content from Variety Intelligence Platforms special report Across the Movie-Verse, a comprehensive data dive into the state of the cinema biz, available exclusively to subscribers.

Years after Wonder Woman and Aquaman made their DC Extended Universe debuts in 2017 and 2018, respectively, The Flash finally hits theaters Friday.

After a multitude of delays initially caused by director swaps then the pandemic and then star Ezra Millers series of legal issues and additional accusations made against him, The Flash is anything but a sure bet for Warner Bros. ongoing superhero prospects, as recent DC films have failed to sustain the momentum of last years The Batman.

Overall, superhero films in 2023 havent been opening as high as those from 2022, but DC in particular has really struggled with its last two DCEU movies. Shazam! Fury of the Gods was a dud at the early 2022 box office, with interest dropping off massively after its underwhelming opening.

October 2022s Black Adam certainly did better than that and capped at just under $170 million domestically. But its overall global performance came in well under what other Johnson-led films, such as Hobbs and Shaw and "Jumanji, pulled in before the pandemic, a bad outcome given its $195 million budget. Costing $200 million to produce, The Flash could have a similar problem if it isnt a smash hit.

That said, The Flash is notable for Michael Keatons return as Batman due to its own spin on the same multiverse formula multiple Spider-Man film series have utilized to massive success.

The most recent such film was Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, which kicked off the June calendar. Projections for that films opening were way off, as Across the Spider-Verse" nabbed $120 million versus the $80 million it was expected to pull in when it bowed, a potential sign that projections The Flash will pull a$70 million opening could be off base as well.

As of its second weekend, Across the Spider-Verse" has already exceeded the entire domestic gross of its 2018 predecessor, putting the film on track to meet VIP+s own projection for what its domestic floor at the box office will end up being.

The same projections were made for the bulk of the summer film calendar in Across the Movie-Verse, VIP+s special report for subscribers.

You may scoff at that $250 million domestic floor we anticipated for The Flash in that report, given the bevy of issues surrounding the films much-delayed release, but the superhero in question is still one of the bigger ones set up within the DCEU.

Millers Flash comprised part of the core cast in both versions of Justice League and appeared in earlier DCEU entries Batman v Superman and the first Suicide Squad. Rotten Tomatoes also shows The Flash scoring slightly more than Aquaman and far better than Black Adam and the Shazam! sequel, with more than 100 reviews aggregated from critics so far.

Aquaman ultimately became a billion-dollar grosser and exceeded $300 million domestically, while the Wonder Woman domestic gross was more than $400 million. Plus, with Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 having already earned the bulk of its gross, The Flash is the only new live-action superhero film to play for two months before DCs Blue Beetle bows in late August.

Millers misdeeds arent the easiest to memory-hole, but current DC co-chair James Gunn has already said there arent plans to recast him should Warner Bros. want the character to stick around. On box-office projection alone, The Flash is worth giving a chance.