Survey: Industry Pros Doubt Box-Office Recovery

Note: This article is based on content from Variety Intelligence Platforms special report Across the Movie-Verse, a comprehensive data dive into the state of the cinema biz, available exclusively to subscribers.

Over the last weekend, the Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse $121 million domestic opening came in well above prior projections suggesting the animated Marvel sequel would net between $80 million and $90 million.

As positive as this is for Sonys most lucrative Marvel IP, the degree to which projections underestimated the opening is emblematic of the pervasive uncertainty that has settled into the film industry in the pandemic era.

An exclusive industry panel conducted by YouGov for Across the Movie-Verse, Variety Intelligence Platforms latest special report for subscribers that covers the film landscape, further highlights the degree to which the industry doubts the box office will return to a state of normalcy.

Just over 75% of the film industry doesnt expect the box office to surpass its pre-pandemic highs for at least five years, with almost half of surveyed panelists expecting it to worsen.

Regardless, films are still making a case for the health of film exhibition and surprisingly so. The exceptional opening for Across the Spider-Verse," the No. 2 opening of 2023 so far, trails Universals $146 million bow for The Super Mario Bros. Movie in April.

But while film studios are mounting their comebacks with impressive blockbusters, actual theaters are still struggling. Regal Cinemas owner Cineworld is climbing out of bankruptcy, and top dog AMC Theatres has adopted the variable ticketing pricing of much larger arenas and amphitheaters to boost revenue from admissions, a move most industry insiders dont expect to be fruitful.

All in all, the film industry doesnt think its progression from the pandemics lows constitutes a full recovery.

This puts all the pressure on a bevy of upcoming films through the remainder of the summer to do more heavy lifting that constitutes a more viable path forward for the theatrical experience.

Mario clearly rejuvenated audiences hunger for animated movies at the box office and added even more interest to the Spider-Verse sequel, whose first entry earned heaps of critical praise and almost $400 million globally upon its 2018 release.

Across the Spider-Verse" is now among the 10 best openings of the pandemic era as well. Even though analysts werent expecting it to open as strong as it did, its still the same IP as 2021s Spider-Man: No Way Home, which remains the best opening since March 2020 and, alongside No. 3 film Avatar: The Way of Water, among the top 10 best titles ever at the global box office.

Now dive into the expansive special report ...