‘The Rise Of Skywalker’ Is Expected To Be Surpassed At This Weekend’s Box Office By A Different War Movie

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker has been the number one movie in the country for the past three weekends, earning $177 million in weekend one, $72 million in weekend two, and $34 million in weekend three. That’s a weekly 50-plus percent drop, and if estimates hold, Episode IX‘s box office reign will be usurped by a different kind of war movie.

1917, the World War I epic directed by Sam Mendes that won Best Motion Picture — Drama during Sunday’s Golden Globes, is projected to make $30-35 million at the high end of expectations, although studio Universal Pictures is “anticipating a performance around $20 million,” according to Box Office Mojo. “As Mendes said while accepting the Golden Globe for the film’s win for Best Motion Picture — Drama, ‘This is a huge thing for this movie.’ Huge indeed.” As for The Rise of Skywalker, the news is less huge:

The film is over the unadjusted $460 million (counting reissues) domestic gross of the first Star Wars ($1.495 billion adjusted), and it’ll likely end the weekend above the unadjusted-for-inflation $474 million gross (counting the 2012 3-D reissue) of The Phantom Menace ($882 million adjusted). Alas, at its rate of descent, it not only won’t get anywhere near The Last Jedi, it won’t end up matching the $532 million domestic finish of Rogue One.

Disney will have to settle for The Rise of Skywalker making barely over $1 billion.